2023 PLAYERS Championship DFS Picks and Bets

What a unique season of golf we’ve seen so far. From the elevated events, to LIV, to Jon Rahm, this year has felt anything but normal. We finally may be heading for a week that feels “normal” as we head to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. We will be missing some of those obvious names that we’ve almost forgotten about, but this week’s stakes, field, and overall field will bring us back to a place of normalcy. Time to preview the tournament ahead.

*all stats are provided by Fantasy National Golf Club (link in footer)

Tournament Preview

TPC Sawgrass is always a fun stop on the tour, and it always draws in the best golfers in the world. It may feel a bit saturated this year considering how good the fields have been for these elevated events, but the PLAYERS status and storied history still gives it a leg up. The course itself is also one of the most unique stops on the tour, playing short for a par 72, but still not rewarding bombers due to its layout and varied shot distributions. The course is Bermuda grass, but since the tournament move to March, is now overseeded with Poa and Bentgrass, offering a green type different than anything the players see. Water is in play on 17 of the holes, ranking Sawgrass as one of the most penalizing courses each year, but still leaving ample opportunities for birdies.

To content here, your game needs to be clicking on almost all cylinders. You can’t win by out-bombing the field (note Dechameau 2021) and you can’t putt and chip your way to a win (unless you’re Webb Simpson circa 2018). An emphasis can be made on approach and the irons, but there is no course that doesn’t require this. You must avoid the water here, or one or two holes could already find you out of the tournament. You’ll also have to be able to get yourself out of tough situations around the green, as tricky bunkers and puttable fairways litter the course. Another thing to note is that course history has not historically played a factor here. Almost all winners have had MCs or a bad result at this event before, with many past winners having seen struggles since conquering the island green since their victories.

There are a few particular places I will be looking at while doing research and making my picks. Firstly, I will emphasize guys that have showed good form. The last 4 winners all had at least 1 Top 5 in the current calendar year, so form will translate well into this week. I will also be putting an emphasis on T2G and Approach. Both these stats have seemed to strongly correlate in players progressing to better results. Looking at the top of former SG leaderboards, these two will always be relevant. Finally, I want a player that won’t get themselves in trouble (or wet more importantly) (pause). For that, I’ll be looking at Bogey Avoidance and Good Drive percentage. Bogey Avoidance has been a highly correlated stat with past good performers, and for good reason. Not shooting yourself out of the tournament is step 1 to getting a nice payday.

Picks and Bet

For this section, I will break it down into three tiers via DFS Pricing and Sportsbook Odds: Elite-Middle-Value, and by specific pricing (FD $, DK $, FD Odds).

Elite Tier

Justin Thomas ($11600, $9400, 18-1) – JT feels like he is a perfect spot this week. He’s been playing great golf this season, finishing no worse than T25 in his last 6 events. However, this is significantly overshadowed by the results Scottie and Rahm have been turning in. As a former winner, it’s clearly apparent that JT’s skillset molds perfectly for TPC Sawgrass. Over his last 4 events, he’s gained more than 5 strokes T2G and 2.5 strokes on approach in 3 of his them, both key stats to succeed at Sawgrass. JT is in a great spot to grab another PLAYERS Championship this week.

Collin Morikawa ($11400, $9500, 24-1) – Back to the well we go with Morikawa. We can’t stop harping on how well he’s suited to succeed at this course. He’s #1 in the field over the last 36 rounds in Good Drives, not to mention in the 95% percentile in SG Approach, Ball Striking, and Proximity. These stats are all crucial to succeeding at this event. His performance last week at Bay Hill was a bit alarming, but I like his odds to bounce back in a big way this week.

Tony Finau ($11000, $9200, 28-1) – It’s another year, and so starts the “can Tony Finau win a big event” narrative. While the PLAYERS has felt like it’s lost some luster, Finau grabbing a win here would still go miles for his career, and he’s in great shape to do so. He’s been fantastic off the tee and with his irons of late, gaining strokes across the board in all key metrics (APR, T2G, BS, and more). His course history here is pretty lackluster, but as we’ve seen in the past that doesn’t totally correlate to how golfers perform each year. If his putter can get hot, which we’ve seen happen before, Tony will have a great shot this week.

Middle Tier

Tom Kim ($10100, $8100, 46-1) – If there’s one guy this week that “fits the mold” for this course, it’s Tom Kim. He’s not long, which isn’t a necessity this week, and he makes up for it by hitting a lot of fairways and keeping the ball in play (a necessity this week). He’s also a great iron player, ranking #2 in the entire field over his last 36 rounds. Not to mention Tom’s caddy, Joe Skovron, has a heap of experience at this course, having been on Rickie Fowler’s bag for his 2015 PLAYERS win. Expect to see Tom in contention this week.

Tyrell Hatton ($9900, $8300, 36-1) – Tyrell (pronounce it right) clicks a lot of boxes this week. His form has arguably been some of the best he’s seen in his career without grabbing a win, with 3 Top 15 finishes over his last 4 events. He also has a great overall game, not ranking in the bottom half of the field in any key statistic this week. As long as Tyrell doesn’t dump a ball in the water and lose his damn mind, he should have a nice week.

Shane Lowry ($9800, $8200, 36-1) – Shaneo is rounding right into form into time for some big events. He struggled in the beginning of the year, but has caught some nice form, posting 2 Top 15 finishes in his last 3 events. He fits a similar mold to Hatton, having an extraordinary all-around game, particularly excelling in his Approach and Ball Striking game. Love me some Shaneo this week.

Value Tier

Denny McCarthy ($8400, $7300, 190-1) – Denny is a big-time sleeper this week. To start, he’s an exceptional putter, ranking 2nd in the field in SG Bermuda putting. He also has shown a knack to “spike”, posting 2 Top 15 finishes in his last 4 events to go along with 2 MCs. He also has had a fair run of play at TPC Sawgrass, not missing a cut in all his starts here. Oh, and it’s his birthday this week. Fire up some Denny.

Adam Hadwin ($8400, $7100, 120-1) – Hadwin is an easy name to click in this week. About all stat models will love Hadwin, as he has a great all-around game, not ranking in the bottom half of the field in any statistic. He also hits a lot of fairways, ranking in the Top 15 in field in fairways gained, which is a huge plus. He’s also had a good run at this event, including a Top 10 last year. Hadwin should be a go to value piece in your DFS lineups.

Robby Shelton ($7600, $6600, 480-1) – Robby is a guy that just keeps popping up in my models. He’s been on a very nice run of late, making 5 straight cuts to go along with 3 Top 25 finishes. He’s also found something with his irons, gaining strokes on Approach in 4 of those events. These are the types of things you want to see from a guy this cheap in price.