With Training Camp around the corner, the best ball season is about to finally swing into full gear, and with it, more movement across the board. We’ll take a look in this article of where we can find some value on some guys who may shine, and fall, once the pads get put on in a few weeks.
In this first section, we’ll look back at the guys we mentioned last month, see how their ADP moved, state if we were right, and whether our stance is the same or changed. For example, if we had a player in buy, and his ADP at the time of that article moved down (50-45) between that article, and this one, then we were right (the general public was buying him). Also, if our stance says to hold, it means we think that player is right about where their number should be.
June Recap
Quarterback – Buy: Player – (June ADP -> July ADP) – Were we right? – Updated Stance
Lamar Jackson, BAL – (31.5 -> 33.0) – NO – BUY
Anthony Richardson, IND – (98.6 -> 103.6) – NO – BUY
Quarterback – Sell:
Aaron Rodgers, NYJ – (109.5 -> 111.5) – YES – SELL
Geno Smith, SEA – (110.7 -> 108.5) – NO – SELL
Running Back – Buy:
Jonathan Taylor, IND – (18.2 -> 20.4) – NO – BUY
Cam Akers, LAR – (71.0 -> 60.4) – YES – HOLD
Antonio Gibson, WSH – (114.2 -> 106.3) – YES – HOLD
Running Back – Sell:
Dameon Pierce, HOU – (63.5 -> 69.1) – YES – SELL
James Conner, ARI – (75.0 -> 77.8) – YES – SELL
Javonte Williams, DEN – (91.3 -> 97.5) – YES – SELL
Wide Receiver – Buy:
DJ Moore, CHI – (50.3 -> 50.2) – YES – BUY
Marquise Brown, ARI – (60.4 -> 63.7) – NO – BUY
Courtland Sutton, DEN – (97.8 -> 93.8) – YES – BUY
Wide Receiver – Sell:
DK Metcalf, SEA – (31.2 -> 30.4) – NO – SELL
Michael Pittman, IND – (64.6 -> 71.0) – YES – HOLD
Odell Beckham, BAL – (96.1 -> 98.4) – YES – SELL
Tight End – Buy:
Cole Kmet, CHI – (135.7 -> 142.0) – NO – BUY
Irv Smith, CIN – (153.9 -> 156.1) – NO – BUY
Tight End – Sell:
TJ Hockenson, MIN – (46.2 -> 47.7) – YES – HOLD
Pat Friermuth, PIT – (114.8 -> 111.7) – NO – SELL
June record according to ADP movement: 11-9. Overall record: 21-19.
Time to take a look at where we’re seeing some value in July.
Quarterback
Buy
Deshaun Watson, CLE (ADP: 84.3) – This is a great spot to take a chance on Deshaun. We’ve seen his ceiling before, and I think there’s a good chance he can get close to where he’d been before. He’s got a full offseason to work with his team, a myriad of weapons around him, and keys to the team now fully in his hands.
Matthew Stafford, LAR (ADP: 144.4) – Stafford is my favorite pick among this tier of QBs. He’s the most talented, and looking at the other QBs around him, in the best situation. He’ll have Kupp back, and he still has McVay to keep their tandem going. If he can stay healthy, Stafford will turn in a solid fantasy season next year.
Sell
Justin Herbert, LAC (ADP: 52.1) – I’d look elsewhere around this pick instead of going to Herbert here. He’s a great Quarterback, but fantasy wise, especially at the end of last year, he was average at best. After week 6, he only had 4 20+ point games, including none after Week 14 (including playoffs). If you want to win in Best Ball, you’re going to need production when the weeks really start mattering.
Derek Carr, NO (ADP: 133.8) – I was never sold on Derek Carr, and joining a new team has me worried. He’s a good crux of players around him, but the adjustment to a new team is anyone’s guess on how that player will perform. It also doesn’t help that Winston, and a tight-end, loom right behind him on the depth chart. Holding my breath on Carr until we see some positive signs.
Running Back
Buy
Breece Hall, NYJ (ADP: 32.2) – Breece is starting to fall too far for me. If reports of him running at full speed are true, he should be going much higher than this. If we see or hear reports once camp gets going that he is running/playing well, we will surely see this ADP heading lower.
Miles Sanders, CAR (ADP: 65.2) – I’ve been a believer of Miles Sanders, and I am pretty excited for him in this spot. He’s by far the best RB on this team. He also gets the boost of having a rookie QB under-center, meaning he may be relied on more on the ground, and also in the passing game. This is a great spot to grab Boobie Miles.
Jamaal Williams/Keandre Miller, NO (ADP: 118.1/154.7) – I don’t think these ranks are reflective enough of the probable Kamara suspension. Even with Kamara healthy, Jamaal will certainly get his touches, and most likely a lot of goal line carries. Miller, on the other hand, would be filling in a similar role to Kamara if he is out. And as a believer in his talent, could produce some good weeks, and possibly keep himself in the fray even when Kamara is back.
Sell
Aaron Jones, GB (ADP: 51.7) – Hard to feel great about Jones this year. With a new QB coming in, it’s any guess what the Green Bay offense looks like. I figure we may see a lot of ground game, and while that’d figure to benefit Jones, I’d side more with it benefiting Dillon. Only time will tell, but hopefully we can get some insight into the situation from their camp.
JK Dobbins, BAL (ADP: 62.2) – Dobbins is too high for me in this spot, especially considering the other RBs he’s surrounded by on draft boards. He’s missed some part of camp already, and we all know how bad the injury bug can get to Dobbins. I would be cautious with him until we see positive signs of his health.
Jerrick McKinnon, KC (ADP: 115.8) – I’m a believer in McKinnon’s hot streak last year being a bit of an anomaly. This KC backfield is suddenly very crowded, and while McKinnon is clearly the best pass catcher, that is not the end all be all. It’s hard for me to get behind someone this early who may be RB3 on the depth chart come Week 1.
Wide Receiver
Buy
Drake London, ATL (ADP: 54.1) – I’m a big fan of London, and I think this is just a bit too low for him. He’s got unreal ball skills, and is far and away the best WR in this room. He’ll also have a full offseason to work with Ridder as the QB1, so the potential for a big partnership is there. If Ridder can play remotely decent, I think we could see an Amon-Ra type 2nd season for London.
Chris Godwin, TB (ADP: 59.6) – I know, Baker Mayfield. But still, someone has to catch the passes, and Godwin fits the best bill to do that. He’s a fantastic short route, possession receiver, and we’ve seen Baker favor this spot a lot in his previous stints. While the TD upside is clearly limited, the reception upside is still as high as it should be for a guy like Godwin.
Skyy Moore, KC (ADP: 131.7) – We’ll see what happens with this Chief’s WR room, but I think Moore still has a strong shot to be the best guy to come out of it. Considering how little he’s played receiver in his career, his talent and potential is clearly through the roof. I’m a believer in the fact that he’s just going to keep getting better, especially if he gets to keep playing with the best QB in the league.
Sell
Keenan Allen, LAC (ADP: 33.1) – This is too high for Keenan. He’s had a great few years, but I think we’re getting ready to see the takeover of Mike Williams in this room. Not to mention that Johnston and the other weapons will be eating up targets as well. I can’t advocate for Keenan this early in drafts.
Christian Kirk, JAX (ADP: 44.0) – A lot like Keenan, Kirk in a very similar spot on his team. He’s got a lot of guys to compete with for targets, and he may only be the 3rd best receiver on this team. I’ll look elsewhere at this insanely early spot.
Jameson Williams, DET (ADP: 112.4) – I don’t get this one. He’s already suspended for 6 games, and not to mention we have no idea what kind of player we’re getting here. When Williams played last year, even though not 100%, he was practically a non-factor. He’s clearly got the talent, but this is too big a question mark that is down 6 games.
Tight End
Buy
David Njoku, CLE (ADP: 104.2) – I’ll bite the bullet on Njoku here. He’s shown before he can produce, and now he’ll have a full season of Watson throwing him the ball, easily the best QB he’s had. If he can become a red-zone favorite of Watson’s, he could be in for a big year.
Tyler Higbee, LAR (ADP: 140.1) – I like grabbing Higbee this late in drafts. He’ll have Stafford back, and he’s the clear cut TE1 on this roster. Besides Kupp, all the targets are up for grabs, and Higbee figures to still be getting his fair share.
Sell
Evan Engram, JAX (ADP: 88.1) – A lot like Christian Kirk, this one is due to that crowded Jags receiver room. Engram will be on the field for a majority of the game, but whether he gets his fair share of targets is anyone’s guess. We may see Engram reverting back to his Giant’s days if he falls down the pecking order here.
Taysom Hill, NO (ADP: 162.4) – How long are we going to do this dance with Taysom Hill? He has no guarantee to get anything on this offense, and with the addition of Jamaal Williams, his goal-line work, which was his most guaranteed spot, may be in jeopardy. I’d rather take Juwan Johnson.
Undrafted Fliers
QB – Clayton Tune, ARI (ADP: 229.5) – It’s thin here, but I think Tune has the best chance to be that random guy that jumps onto radars in camp. The Cardinals current projected Week 1 starter is Colt McCoy, so the opportunity is definitely there for Tune. A good preseason could possibly catapult him into some real playing time this year.
RB – Chris Rodriquez, WSH (ADP: 230.7) – I like this kid a lot, and while he doesn’t figure into the Washington backfield at the moment, I think he could mold his way in. If there’s an injury, or if he performs well in camp, Rodriquez could figure into the team in short time.
WR – Tank Dell, HOU (ADP: 223.4) – Tank has been putting in work this offseason, and he appears to have a good shot to be a key piece in this offense. The Texan’s WR room is wide open, and they clearly invested an early pick in Tank for a reason. With some camp noise, he could start flying up boards.
TE – Jelani Woods, IND (ADP: 224.1) – This Colt’s team is a big question mark coming into 2023, but one thing we can say for certain is that whoever is under center will be looking this tight end’s way. Richardson, a rookie, will need a safety blanket, and we’ve seen Minshew feeding tight ends recently with Goedert in Philly. Woods could emerge as a big figure in this offense this season.
Probably Wondering 