As Best Ball season starts to swing into gear, it’s time to take another look at where things stand and where we could potentially find some value.
In this first section, we’ll look back at the guys we mentioned last month, see how their ADP moved, state if we were right, and whether our stance is the same or changed.
May Recap
Quarterback – Buy: (Player – ADP – Were we right? – Updated Stance)
Bryce Young, CAR – (139.4 -> 160.8) – NO – BUY
Russell Wilson, DEN – (122.8 -> 123.7) – NO – BUY
Quarterback – Sell:
Dak Prescott, DAL – (80.9 -> 86.7) – YES – SAME
Justin Fields, CHI – (34.1 -> 43.5) – YES – BUY
Running Back – Buy:
Dalvin Cook, MIN – (50.7 -> 70.9) – NO – BUY
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE – (31.0 -> 28.7) – YES – BUY
Khalil Herbert, CHI – (117.8 -> 125.5) – NO – BUY
Running Back – Sell:
Breece Hall, NYJ – (27.6 -> 31.6) – YES – BUY
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET – (35.9 -> 38.5) – YES – SELL
Isiah Pacheco, KC – (64.4 -> 77.6) – YES – SELL
Wide Receiver – Buy:
Brandin Cooks, DAL – (89.9 -> 86.9) – YES – BUY
Zay Flowers, BAL – (101.1 -> 102.8) – NO – BUY
Elijah Moore, CLE – (123.9 -> 104.4) – YES – BUY
Wide Receiver – Sell:
Chris Olave, NO – (26.9 -> 23.8) – NO – SELL
DeAndre Hopkins, FA – (42.0 -> 35.8) – NO – SELL
Mike Evans, TB – (71.2 -> 68.6) – NO – SELL
Tight End – Buy:
Kyle Pitts, ATL – (62.7 -> 70.5) – NO – BUY
Jake Ferguson, DAL – (201.8 -> 212.4) – NO – BUY
Tight End – Sell:
Darren Waller, NYG – (69.9 -> 76.2) – YES – BUY
Dalton Kincaid, BUF – (112.5 -> 116.7) – YES – BUY
May record according to ADP: 10-10.
Now it’s time to look where we are in June.
Quarterback
Buy
Lamar Jackson, BAL (ADP: 31.5) – This is too low a spot for Lamar. Speaking solely fantasy wise, Lamar should be considered in the same tier as Allen and Mahomes, but is over 10 spots lower in his ADP. He’s got a new OC, some new weapons in Odell and Zay to toy with, and a finally healthy backfield. This may be the best position Lamar has found himself in in his career.
Anthony Richardson, IND (ADP: 98.6) – It’s hard to fall in love with a raw rookie this early, but I think Richardson is worth the risk at this spot. His fantasy upside is clearly there, and early signs in camp are all positive. If Richardson can run even a fraction of what we’ve seen the likes of Fields and Hurts do, he’ll be a fine fantasy QB.
Sell
Aaron Rodgers, NYJ (ADP: 109.5) – I believe Rodgers will have a good stint in NY, but fantasy wise, I’d turn elsewhere here. His production upside just doesn’t feel worth it at this spot. The Jets have showed that they can fall in love with their run game, and I’d bet that will stay the case even with Rodgers. I’d expect a lot of 200-2 games from Aaron this year.
Geno Smith, SEA (ADP: 110.7) – This is too early for Geno. He’s showed a propensity to have some big games, but as we’ve seen before, he also has a propensity to have some really bad games. I would just expect him to be a bit lower into the group of the likes of Carr and Russ, a more comfortable spot for him.
Running Back
Buy
Jonathan Taylor, IND (ADP: 18.2) – This is getting a bit ridiculous for JT at this point. Consensus #1 pick last year who just continues to slide. Just looking at things blindly, I get the Bijan hype, but should he really be going 10 picks ahead of JT? I don’t think so.
Cam Akers, LAR (ADP: 71.0) – This is a great spot for Cam, especially compared to last years ADP in the late 2nd/early 3rd round. The Rams are poised for a big turn around this year, and Cam could be a big benefactor of that. He’s still the guy in that backfield, with a lot of unproven competition behind him. If he can erase the fumbling issues, he could really be a force this year.
Antonio Gibson, WSH (ADP: 114.2) – Gibson is a guy a lot of people have seemed to forget about. While BRob is certainly an impact back, his skillset is so different from Gibson that we have to think Gibson will still be a big factor in this backfield. Also considering the Commanders are going with Howell, a young and unproven QB, a pass catching back like Gibson may be in line for a good workload.
Sell
Dameon Pierce, HOU (ADP: 63.5) – This an awkward spot for Pierce. He’s sandwiched in between what feels like 2 RB tiers, but I think he should definitely be lower. The signing of Singletary won’t help, and the Texans are a team that really feels in flux at the moment. Hard to gage where Pierce is going to be with this team when the season gets into swing.
James Conner, ARI (ADP: 75.0) – I just don’t’ get this spot for Conner. He’s getting up there in age, and the Cardinals are expected to be bottom of the barrel this year. Hard to expect much from Conner running on a team expected to be trailing for the majority of the season, not to mention with the Cardinals current QB issues.
Javonte Williams, DEN (ADP: 91.3) – I’m a massive fan of Javonte, but I’m not willing to take the risk on him at this spot with the injury concerns. He really messed his knee up, and it’s going to be hard for him to get back to what he once was this year.
Wide Receiver
Buy
DJ Moore, CHI (ADP: 50.3) – This is a good price for DJ. He’s reportedly been showing out in camp, and already developing a good repour with Fields. If Moore becomes a guy Fields gets comfortable with, he could be a steal at this pick.
Marquise Brown, ARI (ADP: 60.4) – With the departure of Hopkins, I would’ve expected Brown’s ADP to drop a bit more then this. We’ve seen what he did without Hop last year, and while I get the Cardinals QB situation, I honestly feel just as comfortable for Brown whether it’s Kylar or Colt McCoy under center.
Courtland Sutton, DEN (ADP: 97.8) – I’ve always been a big fan of Sutton, and I’m starting to load up on him in best ball. It doesn’t make sense to me the gap in Jeudy and Sutton’s ADP, as both have turned in similar production in their time in the league. Especially considering this WR range is a bit of a dead zone, I like grabbing Sutton at this spot.
Sell
DK Metcalf, SEA (ADP: 31.2) – This is too high for me for DK. His situation is just scarier this year. Firstly, can we expect the same Geno? The Seahawks also added JSN, who is sure to take some targets. And rumors were swirling of DK moving, which usually doesn’t bode well for a player. This is a situation I’m avoiding at an ADP this high.
Michael Pittman, IND (ADP: 64.6) – This is a tough one for me. I like Pittman, but like Metcalf, his situation scares me. Rookie QB, added other weapons, heavy run team. Proceed with caution with Pittman at this spot.
Odell Beckham, BAL (ADP: 96.1) – This ADP makes 0 sense to me. I think people are married to this name. I’d almost rather have Agholor then Odell from this receiver core. WRs have notoriously struggled production wise with Lamar, and I doubt that changes with Odell, who hasn’t been fantasy relevant in 4 years, but has an ADP in the double digits. I’ll pass.
Tight End
Buy
Cole Kmet, CHI (ADP: 135.7) – This is too low for Kmet. We saw some flashes last year, and I think we can expect more of the same next year. If Fields sees some improvement, Kmet will surely be a benefactor, and will yield a solid return at this price.
Irv Smith, CIN (ADP: 153.9) – Is Irv Smith going to finally be the guy everyone thought he’d be? This is going to be his best shot. We’ve seen Burrow give production to his TEs, even with a loaded WR core, and Irv is arguably the most talented TE he has had. The possible upside for Irv is worth the risk at this pick.
Sell
TJ Hockenson, MIN (ADP: 46.2) – I have to pass on TJ here. This ADP feels married to the fact the TE group is so thin, and to those few big games he had last year. I think he should be about 15 spots lower here.
Pat Friermuth, PIT (ADP: 114.8) – Friermuth is another guy I’m struggling to think of reasons for picking. The Steelers situation is gross, especially at QB, and their TE room got even more crowded with the addition of Darnell Washington. Compared to the TEs below him (Irv, Kmet, Hurst), I don’t know how he’s ranked this much higher then them.
Undrafted Fliers
QB – Will Levis, TEN (ADP: 227.6) – I’m a big fan of Levis, and think we will easily be seeing him this season, possibly fairly early on. Worth a late grab if you already nab a stud QB.
RB – Chase Edmonds, TB (ADP: 229.3) – Think Edmonds is flying under the radar as one of the best handcuffs to be had. We’ve seen his production already, and he’s in a great situation. While Racaad White is a good player, he’s not a bellcow, and Edmonds doesn’t face much competition as the next guy in line to take some carries.
WR – Michael Wilson, ARI (ADP: 225.3) – The Cardinals WR room is now beaming with opportunity with the departure of Hopkins, and I like Wilson’s chances to make an impact. His build is significantly different then Moore’s and Dortch’s, so his opportunity to grab a starting spot on the outside is certainly there.
TE – Cade Otton, TB (ADP: 224.4) – Hampered by the rookie TE curse, Otton should be in for a much better year this time around. He figures to be the guy, and with a new QB under center, he has a chance to get a good rep and start getting some serious targets on the field.
Probably Wondering 