NFL Best Ball season is upon us. While drafting in May could give reason for you to seek some help, it also offers plenty of opportunity to jump on some early value, and stay away from some potential traps. Here’s your full guide for Best Ball drafts for this early in the season.
In the first section, we’ll look at guys that are undervalued (Buy) and overvalued (Sell) according to their ADP (according to DraftKings), current standing in their team, and more. In the final section, we’ll give you one player at each position currently going undrafted or at a rank later then the final pick, that we believe could we worth taking a chance on at the end of drafts.
Quarterback
Buy
Bryce Young, CAR (ADP: 139.4) – I just can’t wrap my head around this ADP for Young. He’s a great talent that landed in a good spot, and, while reports may suggest otherwise, should be out there for week 1. Looking at the other QBs in this range, his upside is just so much higher that it makes it hard for me to consider anyone else. While he hasn’t shown exceptional skills running the ball, he should still be a great fantasy option regardless, especially considering this way-too-late ADP.
Russell Wilson, DEN (ADP: 122.8) – Russ can’t be that terrible again right? I highly doubt it. Firstly, I want to point out that I think the hiring of Sean Payton could be the turnaround Russ needed. Granted, it was Drew Brees, but we’ve seen Payton work extremely well with this type of QB before. Also, with the uncertainty around Javonte Williams and the Broncos’ backfield, they will have to rely a lot on their ariel attack. With all kinds of weapons at his disposal, expect a bounce back year from Russ and a certain jump in his ADP going forward.
Sell
Dak Prescott, DAL (ADP: 80.9) – I think a lot of people get married to the Dak of the past when drafting in Best Ball and season long drafts. We’ve seen his production constantly slide every year, and yet his ADP continues to hang around this spot it feels like every year. Looking at the QBs around him, I think there’s too many options to consider that make Dak’s position look even worse.
Justin Fields, CHI (ADP: 34.1) – This is a hard spot for Fields to land. While he turned in a historic fantasy season last year, it’s hard for me to envision him replicating it. We’ve seen it before with teams adjusting to QBs like Fields as his tenure continues, and I think that will be the case this year. While I doubt his ADP slides, I’d look elsewhere at this spot.
Running Back
Buy
Dalvin Cook, MIN (ADP: 50.7) – This ADP just makes no sense. Cook was a sure fire first-round pick last year, turned in 1450 total yards and 10 total TDs, and is now a FIFTH round pick?!?! I get his age is getting up there, but Derrick Henry had a similar “slide” in production and we just see him down to around 20th. I get the Alexander Mattison fear, but it’s not enough to deter me. This one is a no-brainer.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (ADP: 31.0) – I’m a believer in the fact that we’ll see Rhamondre be a first round pick in these drafts in 2024. We’ve seen the talent, and with the departure of Harris, it’s now his backfield to lead. James Robinson will do some vulturing, but Stevenson will bring massive upside still considering how much NE figured to use him in the passing game last year. I thought we would’ve seen him somewhere in the late teens/early 20s where we see guys like Pollard and Chubb, so this is just way too low for Stevenson.
Khalil Herbert, CHI (ADP: 117.8) – Hard to stay away from Herbert in this spot. Firstly, any starting RB going this late offers instant value. Secondly, Herbert is in a great spot, with the Bears being a very run heavy team, and as the lead candidate to take a majority of those carries. While the Bears brought in the likes of D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson to compete for carriers, that’s not enough to keep me away from Herbert.
Sell
Breece Hall, NYJ (ADP: 27.6) – This is merely due to the fact there’s a lot of uncertainty around Breece and the timeline to his injury. I think Breece is great, but I just can’t see paying this high up for him when we have no clue when he’s going to get on a football field.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (ADP: 35.9) – This is a hard one for me, because I was all in on Gibbs pre-draft, but it’s hard for me to get up for him at this spot. We saw what happened in Detroit last year with Swift and Williams, and I think we could figure in to see the same with Gibbs and Montgomery this season. If Montgomery gets hurt/was out of the picture, Gibbs would figure to be a borderline first round pick, but after what happened to Swift last year, I can’t help but be scared Gibbs might get the same fate.
Isiah Pacheco, KC (ADP: 64.4) – This KC backfield just continues to be gross. We saw it last year, when people were all in on Pacheco during the Best Ball playoffs, when it was McKinnon that swooped it and went off, leaving Pacheco in the backburner. KC is bringing back McKinnon, and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire figured to be back in the fold, this might be a mess better made to avoid at this ADP for Pacheco.
Wide Receiver
Buy
Brandin Cooks, DAL (ADP: 89.9) – This was a great landing spot for Cooks, but his ADP doesn’t reflect it. While Ceedee is the obvious number 1, Cooks slots in as the favorite to be Dak’s 2nd go to guy. In PPR formats, Cooks will be able to produce without having to find the end zone. A lot of targets will be up for grabs with Schultz gone as well, so all the opportunity is there for Cooks.
Zay Flowers, BAL (ADP: 101.1) – I get the sentiment to how bad a landing spot this could be for Flowers, but I’m married to the fact that his talent shouldn’t allow him to be drafted this low. Besides Andrews, the Raven’s receiving core is a bit of a mess, and Flowers figures the favorite to slot into that WR1 role. If he can get something going with Lamar he could have a special season. A possible WR1 on a good team with a good QB should never be going this late in any drafts.
Elijah Moore, CLE (ADP: 123.9) – A fresh start for Elijah may be exactly what he needs, and I like this spot for him. Firstly, I believe in his talent, as we’ve seen before he can be an elite separator on the field. While Watson clearly wasn’t right last year, a full offseason and a full actual season may be what he needs to get right. If Watson gets things going, someone else besides Cooper is going to have to also contribute to those air yards, and Moore just might be that guy.
Sell
Chris Olave, NO (ADP: 26.9) – I’m going to get hate for this one, but I think this is too early for Olave. The upside is obviously there, but I think this early a selection is married to the 2nd year wide receiver narrative. Derek Carr will bring better QB play in for Olave, but how much better? We saw Carr jell with Adams last year, but the chemistry had been there before. Time will tell if I’ll regret this one.
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI (ADP: 42.0) – I’ve always been a fan of Hop, but this ADP is way too early for him. Firstly, it’s anyone’s idea who’s going to be QB for the Cardinals for the majority of this season with Kylar on the mend. The Cardinals wide receiver room is also getting crowded, which is never a good thing for a 30 year old vet. I wouldn’t bite the bullet on Hop this early.
Mike Evans, TB (ADP: 71.2) – Evans is going to be in a tough spot this year. He’s going to be 30 once Week 1 rolls around, which marks the beginning of the end for any athlete. His QB play is also widely in question, as who knows what kind of play Baker will bring. He also really slipped a bit last year, only recording a TD in 3 games. Hard for me to find a reason to take Evans this year.
Tight End
Buy
Kyle Pitts, ATL (ADP: 62.7) – Back to the well we go with Kyle Pitts. This is just too low an ADP for him. The drafting of Bijan will scare people, but I think it could be beneficial for the Falcons passing attack as a whole, giving more opportunities to the entirety of the offense. While Ridder is widely unproven, the upside for Pitts should actually be higher compared to going into the 2022 season with Mariota, a QB not known for his arm. A full offseason for Ridder and Pitts could hopefully create the dynamic for Pitts we’ve been looking for his whole career.
Jake Ferguson, DAL (ADP: 201.8) – This is way too low for a probable starting tight end. People are staying away from Ferguson most likely due to the Cowboy’s selection of Luke Schoonmaker, but as we’ve seen countless times in the past, rookie TEs way more than not have a not-so-stellar rookie season production wise. Ferguson should be the guy for the Cowboy’s at tight end, and as we’ve seen in the past, Dak is a very fantasy helpful QB when it comes to feeding the position.
Sell
Darren Waller, NYG (ADP: 69.9) – This was not a great landing spot for Waller. For one, the Giants are not a notorious ariel attacking team, let alone to the tight ends. We’ve seen it before with Evan Engram, who has all the ability in the world, but could never get anything to click with Daniel Jones, just to turn around and have a big season with Trevor Lawrence. This is too high for Waller.
Dalton Kincaid, BUF (ADP: 112.5) – I can’t get taking a rookie tight end this early. Kincaid may turn out to be a great player, but we never see the production for rookie tight ends flourish. Pitt’s rookie mark was a record setting mark, and he just surpassed 1000 yards while only having 1 TD. Can’t forget about Dawson Knox still figuring in to the team as well. I’d look elsewhere at this spot.
Undrafted Fliers
QB – Sam Darnold, SF – Trey Lance’s future in SF is currently up in the air, as trade rumors have swirled for him all offseason. There have even been reports Darnold may start Week 1 even if Lance isn’t dealt. A possible starting QB this late could offer some great value, and if Lance is dealt, or Darnold gets picked as the official starter, we’d certainly see a rise in his ADP.
RB – Kyren Williams, LAR – The Rams have had a bit of a rough go in their RB room of late. Cam Akers can’t hold on to the ball, and Kyren Williams came down with a preseason injury last year after a lot of hype was building around him. A lot of people thought the Rams would go RB early in the draft, but they didn’t, not taking one til the 6th round. This tells me the Rams still believe Williams could be the guy they were holding out for last year. If Akers stumbles at all, Kyren could slot in to a big role.
WR – Xavier Hutchinson, HOU – The Houston Texans wide receiver room offers a boatload of opportunity, and Xavier Hutchinson may be the guy to jump at it. He’s a big body receiver that made his mark as an above average possession receiver, which is exactly the type of build that will help a young QB like Stroud begin to get into the flow of the next level. Hutchinson will have the chance to climb the depth charts this offseason.
TE – Tucker Kraft, GB – While Luke Musgrave was the earlier tight end selection for Green Bay, I believe Kraft could be the better fantasy contributor out of the two. GB still used a 3rd round pick on him, which shows they clearly value him, and with the departure of Tonyan, all the opportunity is there at that position. Kraft is an athletic body that will have chance to be TE1 some time into the season.
Probably Wondering 