It’s Masters week. We head down Magnolia Lane to Augusta National for arguably the most historic tournament in all of golf. The Masters never fails to deliver on storylines, historic finishes, collapses, and more, and this year doesn’t seem to be setting up any different. Tiger, the injuries, a heap of guys rounding into form. It’s Monday. This is going to be a long/exhilarating week.
*all stats provided by Fantasy National Golf Club (link in footer)
Tournament Preview
Besides being one of the most beautiful courses in the world, Augusta offers one of the most unique layout and dynamics professional golfers see every year. To name a few, quick greens with many undulating slopes, easy to hit fairways but ones that are deadly in some spots, scary water hazards and trees, and more. This segments me into the most important stat to look at this week: Course History. No tournament correlates more with previous results and course comfort then Augusta National, and paying attention to a guy’s previous results should be your biggest attraction. Knowing where to find the slopes, where to miss fairways, and how these greens role trumps any trending stats you can find.
Looking at some stats however, we see Approach play taking the top spot once again. Great iron play correlates with great results, and it is no different here at Augusta. Hideki showed that last year, and undoubtedly the green jacket winner on Sunday will have done the same. Another key stat to look at is SG Off-The-Tee. Augusta has the widest fairways of any stop on the Tour, but that can be a deceiving point. Some spots on Augusta’s fairways are more punishable then finding the rough at a lot of other courses. This isn’t to mention that if you do miss the fairways, there’s a good chance you may find yourself in surrounded by trees or in a plenty area. Being a bomber can also be a huge advantage here, as we’ve seen distance be a factor in crowning a winner year in and year out. Overall, it will take the irons and a strong off-the-tee game to get the job done this week.
Picks and Bets
For this section, I will break it down into three tiers via DFS Pricing and Sportsbook Odds: Elite-Middle-Value, and by specific pricing (FD $, DK $, FD Odds).
Elite Tier
Jon Rahm ($12100, $10800, 14-1) – If you pay attention to any golf media at all, you will think that Rahm is coming in to the Masters in a bit of a “funk”. That is, if you consider a funk to include finishing T21 or better in 4 of your last 5 results. I guess Rahm has garnered that kind of status now, but it’s no where near enough to turn me off of him. As you can see, his still put together results while not having his A-game, and now he gets to a course where he’s done about everything but win at. It’s a perfect get right spot for Rahm. And he just relinquished the #1 spot in the world, so now he should be extra motivated/can get the trend off his back of #1s not winning majors (hopefully this week).
Rory McIlroy ($11500, $10000, 20-1) – The undaunted pressure of a potential Grand Slam will hang over Rory’s head every time he comes to Augusta, but it’s not something that I’m going to let draw me away from him. Rory has fantastic history at Augusta. Before his MC last year, he at least Top 10ed in 6 of his last 7 tournaments. That’s incredible. And he’s had an under-the-radar season so far, turning in some good results oversees and at the Genesis. Rory is an easy guy to get behind, and I think he shows out this week.
Brooks Koepka ($10900, $9400, 21-1) – I love Brooks this week. Firstly, he’s a big-game hunter, and he does love Augusta. People will see that MC last year and grow timid, but the guy was so hurt he couldn’t even bend over to pick up his ball. I’ll pay attention to his previous T7 and T2 results. He also has some good lead up form coming in, playing well at events we expect Brooks to play well at, resulting in 3 Top 16 results in his last 5 tournaments. Expecting him to keep that going this week.
Middle Tier
Shane Lowry ($9900, $8800, 55-1) – Shane fits the mold for a lot of reasons this year. He’s already got that major win, so the pressure won’t be biting at his heels. He’s been playing great of late, giving him top 5% rankings in SG Approach and Proximity. He’s also built for this course, and some possible windy conditions might play right into Lowry’s MO. Shane’s a go this week.
Tyrell Hatton ($9500, $8000, 95-1) – Hatton’s struggles at Augusta cannot go overlooked, but things are turning around. He turned in his best result last year, and that came off of results that are not as good as this year. He’s a great iron player, and like Lowry, would benefit massively from some steep wind conditions. He also fits the trends as previous winners, some that include this season’s results, driving distance, Master’s history, and more. If he can keep his head on straight, he can contend here.
Joaquin Neimann ($10000, $8200, 44-1) – Neimann is one of my sneaky favorite plays this week. He loves Bentgrass, his only wins and some of best results coming on Bentgrass greens. He’s also been in good form, his recent win at the Genesis showing he can close at big events. He’ll also have some Sergio course education this week to help him get the course down just a bit more. Niemann will almost certainly turn in his best result at Augusta this week.
Value Tier
Sepp Straka ($8100, $6600, 320-1) – Sepp is a sneaky great play this week. Firstly, he’s a UGA alum, which is a huge plus, giving him some bonus experience a debutant usually doesn’t get. He’s got a well-rounded game, but excels the most around the green and on it, a huge plus to go along with some experience on Augusta’s tricky greens. Sepp could turn in a nice finish this week.
Luke List ($8000, $7000, 120-1) – The arguably worst putter in the world who somehow hasn’t played at this even in 15 years has found a spot on my list. That’s a scary sentence, but List deserves to be here. Firstly, here’s a Georgia native, and has got to play at Augusta many times, so course comfort/familiarity will be there for him. He’s also playing the best golf of his career, still turning in good results after his breakthrough win the the Farmers. List could show out this week for many friends and family.
Erik Van Rooyen ($8000, $6700, 270-1) – WDing after his first-round blunder last year, Van Rooyen is no longer that same golfer. He’s been playing great for a guy at this price, coming off a T13 at the PLAYERS, no slouch of a tournament. He’s a fantastic iron player, ranking in the Top 10 in the field in Approach and Proximity over his last 24 rounds. He’s also South African, which is just somehow always a plus at the Masters. Sign me up for some EVR.
Probably Wondering 