The PGA Tour stays in the Longhorn State as we head to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. Formerly just known as the Valero (no clue what happened there), this event has the downside of being the event right before the Masters. Not the best spot to be, but you’d expect the field to be worse, as we do have the likes of Rory, Bryson, and Spieth still teeing it up. Let’s hope we’re in for a good week to get us warmed up for the big one.
*all stats provided by Fantasy National Golf Club (link in footer)
Tournament Preview
Texas and Pete Dye offer an interesting mix of golf. TPC San Antonio offers some of Pete Dye’s classics; bunkers, long Par 5s and Par 3s, and a ball-strikers paradise. This course rewards the guys who strike the ball and dial in their irons, as the small greens and bunkers force players to be precise. Driving distance tops driving accuracy this week, as the rough doesn’t offer much punishment, and the hazards are to a minimum here. Spieth was spraying his drives all over the course last year and still walked away with the win. There are ample opportunities for birdies here, but this course can punish you quickly. Whoever can bomb the ball and find the form with their irons will walk away with the win this week.
Picks and Bets
For this section, I will break it down into three tiers via DFS Pricing and Sportsbook Odds: Elite-Middle-Value, and by specific pricing (FD $, DK $, FD Odds).
Elite Tier
Rory McIlroy ($12000, $11200, 7-1) – Rory is ranked #1 in my model this week and for good reason. He’s one of the best ball strikers in the world and the 2nd longest player off the tee in the field (behind Bryson). His mold couldn’t be more perfect this course. The only question mark could be his head already in Georgia for next week (he was spotted at Augusta on Tuesday). If he wants this one, he’ll take it.
Abraham Ancer ($11400, $10300, 21-1) – The low-key Pete Dye king makes another appearance. Ancer is the best golfer in the field at Pete Dye courses over the last 36 rounds, and just loves stacking results at his designed courses. He’s not the longest player, but his precision with his irons bodes well for him. He’s a great pivot this week that offers some major upside. **WITHDREW**
Corey Conners ($11600, $9800, 16-1) – Is Corey Conners just the best golfer on planet? He may be. Conners never fails to pop, and his game just couldn’t be better fit for a course. Not to mention this is the course where he got his first win and ultimately catapulted his career. Good mojo and good form is a scary thing for those who want to fade Conners this week.
Middle Tier
Charley Hoffman ($10200, $8200, 46-1) – Hard to get away from Charley Hoffman at the Charley Hoffman Open. No one’s played better at this event then Charley, posting 8 Top 15s in 10 starts. Not much more to say. You should have no fear playing Charley this week.
Luke List ($9900, $8500, 50-1) – List suits well for this course. He’s a bomber off the tee and a great ball striker, ranking in the top 5% in both in the field. Just have to hope his head isn’t also on his first start at Augusta.
Doug Ghim ($9100, $7600, 75-1) – Riding with the home-grown kid here. Ghim is a Texas kid, and that’s always a plus at an event like this. He’s also no slouch, ranking 11th in my model due to his trending SG Approach and Ball-Striking game. Can easily seem Ghim making a run for his breakthrough victory this week.
Value Tier
Martin Laird ($8800, $7500, 90-1) – Laird is another guy who fits the mold for this course. He’s known for his ball-striking, which he should be able to use to the fullest this week. He also has good form at this course, making the cut in all 4 tries.
Danny Lee ($8400, $6800, 120-1) – Danny is a guy that just pops up on leaderboards at the most random weeks, and this could be another one. He has a great all-around game, and has had some good results at Pete Dye tracks. Also Top 10ed here his last start.
Austin Smotherman ($7300, $6800, 190-1) – Smotherman is a fantastic value play this week. He ranks surprisingly high in my models, ranking in the Top 20 in Approach, Ball Striking, and Proximity. He also played here in 2020 at the San Antonio Championship and finished solo 4th. That’s all I need for a guy at this price.
Written by:
Harry Rohlfing
Fantasy Golf National Club:
Probably Wondering 