PLAYERS Recap: The PLAYERS gave us a wild tournament that featured everything from a Monday finish, hole-in-ones, and a threesome arguing like a group of friends who can’t decide on a place to eat. If you tailed our article on the PLAYERS, you most likely had a good week. We touted Cameron Smith, who went on to win the whole thing thanks to a stellar week on the greens. The rest of our picks were right on Cam’s heels, with 5! of our picks finishing in the Top 10, another finishing Top 15. Let’s keep this momentum rolling into this week as we continue the Florida swing at the Valspar Championship.
*all stats provided by Fantasy National Golf Club (link in footer)
Tournament Preview
We don’t go far as the PGA Tour continues its Florida run with a stop at Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship. You would think this field would lag a bit following a tournament like the PLAYERS, but the field actually posts a well-rounded group of golfers. The Monday finish has already taken an axe to some players commitments, but it still should be a great week.
Innisbrook offers a Par 71, Bermuda grass course that offers another string of tough scoring in the Florida sun. To excel here, a few things jump to mind. Firstly, you have to be in form in SG APP. This course sets up some difficult approaches with its carefully constructed doglegs and it’s demanding 5 Par 3s of about 200+. This course is also demanding around the green, bunkers littering the course. Finally, you must be able to gain strokes off the tee, as water does is another prominent factor here, especially in the “Snake Pit”, the toughest closing holes on the PGA Tour.
Picks and Bets
For this section, I will break it down into three tiers via DFS Pricing and Sportsbook Odds: Elite-Middle-Value, and by specific pricing (FD $, DK $, FD Odds).
Elite Tier
Collin Morikawa ($12000, $10700, 12-1) – Collin is just too good to turn in a result like he had last week. Collin got the tough end of tee times and resulted in a MC at a course that couldn’t have been better suited. We should see him use this as fuel to the fire, as this course also sets up well for Collin. Collin’s iron play should benefit him mightily, giving him a leg up on the difficult Par 3s and the must-score Par 5s. His win equity is also too high, and could run away with any event he tees up for.
Brooks Koepka ($11000, $9400, 29-1) – Koepka is a great contrarian play this week. He should see low ownership this week after his abysmal rounds at the PLAYERS. Koepka fits up well for this course, being in the top 5 %s in difficult bermuda scoring in my model over his last 24 rounds. He also loves a good bounce back, post results of T16, T3 and T9 after his last 3 missed cuts. Koepka is a guy I like to make a run this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10700, $9000, 24-1) – Matt, like our first 2 picks, comes in after being a huge chalk letdown at the PLAYERS. This will steer people off him, but his game still suits up better than ever for another Florida course. He’s great Around the Green, and Top 5 in the field in SG Par 3 200-225 yards. He has a well-rounded game that should see him bounce back here this week. He also has extra incentive, with his brother Alex being in the field. Love a good sibling-rivalry to motivate a player to his best.
Middle Tier
Webb Simpson ($10300, $8300, 70-1) – Webb is a guy that is just hard to get away from every week. The neck injury is obviously a concern, but the week he puts that behind him will be the week he burns everyone for fading him for the injury concern. Webb loves Bermuda greens, gaining more strokes on it then any other green type. He’s also a fantastic iron player, and could see his putter get scorching hot at any moment. Hard for me to fade Webb this week.
Cameron Tringale ($9700, $8000, 75-1) – Tringale is the guy this week that keeps hanging around my models. He’s another guy with a balanced game, gaining strokes on the field in every relevant metric in my model. He also turned in a T3 here last year, so the course comfort is there. Tringale is a player who gets the Sunday Scaries when in contention, but don’t be surprised if you see him around the leaderboards on Sunday.
Christian Bezuidenhout ($10100, $7900, 46-1) – Bez checks a lot of boxes for me this week. Firstly, he loves Bermuda grass, by far his best surface. He also is fantastic around the green, in the Top 1% in Scrambling and Top 5% in SG Short Game. He also has the win equity, having won tournaments in big events before in his home country of South Africa. Bez could be a guy I would not be surprised to see grab this win. Also a super easy guy to root for.
Value Tier
Jhonattan Vegas ($8900, $7500, 120-1) – Back to the well with Johnny Vegas we go. We’re at another course that suits his stellar ball striking and approach play. His achilles heel cost him last week in his around the green play, resulting in him bogeying his last hole to miss the cut. If he can just minimize this damage, he’ll be through to the week.
Nick Taylor ($8200, $7300, 190-1) – Taylor is a guy that could surprise a lot of people this week. He excels in difficult scoring settings, posting one of the biggest splits in the field between scoring difficulties. He’s also had a fairly good season so far, posting 2 Top 10s, and has seen his iron and OTT game trending in the right direction. Taylor poses a great value this week.
Matt Kuchar ($8500, $7000, 190-1) – Getting a little flashback here but we’ll be going back to Matt Kuchar this week. His play has been solid of late, especially in difficult scoring conditions, in the top half of the field in EVERY metric in my model over his last 24 rounds with difficult bermuda scoring. He’s also never missed a cut at this event. A T20 is definitely in play for Kuch this week.
Written by:
Harry Rohlfing
Fantasy National Golf Club:
Probably Wondering 