The golf season has finally swung into major season (well, the 5th major season) as the Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach for the PLAYERS Championship. The PLAYERS has definitely earned the all-caps honor, its massive purse drawing the best players in the world to TPC Sawgrass for one of the biggest tournaments of the year. With huge DFS contests and a wide-open betting market, it’s time to preview the tournament and give our picks.
*all stats are provided by Fantasy National Golf Club (link in footer)
Tournament Preview
TPC Sawgrass, Pete Dye’s most heralded design, offers the players one of the most unique stops on the tour. The course is plays short for a par 72, but doesn’t reward bombers due to it’s layout and varied shot distributions. The course is Bermuda grass, but since the tournament move to March, is now overseeded with Poa and Bentgrass, offering a green type different then anything the players see. Water is in play on 17 of the holes, ranking Sawgrass as one of the most penalizing courses each year.
To excel here, your game needs to be clicking on almost all cylinders. You can’t win by out-bombing the field (note Dechameau last year) and you can’t putt your way to a win (unless you’re Webb Simpson circa 2018). An emphasis can be made on approach and the irons, but there is no course that doesn’t require this. You must avoid the water here, or one or two holes could already find you out of the tournament. You’ll also have to be able to get yourself out of tough situations around the green as, as tricky bunkers and puttable fairways litter the course. Another thing to note is that course history has not historically played a factor here. Almost all winners have had MCs here prior or a bad event, and many past winners have seen struggles since conquering the island green.
I’ll be putting an emphasis on my picks and model in a few particular places. Firstly, I will emphasize guys that have showed good form. The last 3 winners all had at least 1 Top 5 in the calendar year prior, and this course has seemed to reward players with good form with high finishes. I will also be putting an emphasis on T2G and Approach. Both these stats have seemed to strongly correlate in players progressing to better results. As a small example of many, Justin Thomas’s last 3 results from the PLAYERS were 11-35-1 (2018-2019-2021). In those 3 starts, his Strokes Gained T2G and Approach looked like this: T2G (7.1-3.4-12.9), Approach (1.8, -0.4, 6.5). You can see how this trend fits the mold with the results JT posted. Finally, I want a player that won’t get themselves in trouble (or wet more importantly) (pause). For that, I’ll be looking at Bogey Avoidance and Good Drive percentage. Bogey Avoidance has been a highly correlated stat with past good performers, and for good reason. Not shooting yourself out of the tournament is step 1 to getting a nice payday.
Picks and Bets
For this section, I will break it down into three tiers via DFS Pricing and Sportsbook Odds: Elite-Middle-Value, and by specific pricing (FD $, DK $, FD Odds).
Elite Tier
Collin Morikawa ($11800, $10700, 14-1) – TPC Sawgrass will not have a golfer come in to play this week more suited for it then Collin Morikawa. He’s arguably the best iron player and world and is one of the best off the tee players when you take out the factor of driving distance. He struggled here last year due to a disaster-class on and around the green, but still turned in a T41. Imagine if he can just not lose strokes on the green. Oh, I can. He’ll win.
Viktor Hovland ($11400, $10100, 20-1) – Hovland is just a guy I can easily get behind. He’s in the Top 4% in Ball Striking and Approach over his last 36 rounds, and those are two key factors to getting your foot in the door at Sawgrass. He’s also been playing great so far this year, posting 3 Top 5s in his last 5 starts. Sounds a lot like some guy who won this event before (Rory 2019, 4 Top 5s before his win). As long as Viktor doesn’t completely unravel around the green, he’ll have a great shot at taking this one down.
Cameron Smith ($10600, $9400, 29-1) – Cam Smith seems to be clicking a lot of boxes for me this week. He’s been trending in the right direction of late, increasing his SG T2G and Approach over his last few events, plus he already has a win on this calendar year. He’s also shown good results at TPC Sawgrass since it moved to March, and my biggest takeaway from this is how he got those results. He gained strokes putting and around the green, while losing strokes on the tee and barely gaining any approaching the green. You can probably see where this is going, but if he can use his in-form T2G and Approach game to go along with his talent around the greens that he’s showed here, he could be in for a great week.
Middle Tier
Paul Casey ($9600, $7400, 75-1) – Casey is a guy that loves popping up in my models, but I think this week has more incentive than ever to go to him. Firstly, he loves Pete Dye designs, ranking first in a number of stats on his courses. Also, I think Casey could see a reduced ownership this week coming off a solid 83 on Sunday at API. You won’t find a guy that rates out better then Casey, and these sportsbooks and DFS apps love to undervalue him.
Abraham Ancer ($9800, $7600, 50-1) – Ancer is an easy guy to get behind this week. He’s known for a well-rounded skillset, and now he gets a course where he’s had some good history, and a design he seems to excel on. Ancer rates out the #2 golfer in my model on Pete Dye courses (right behind Paul Casey), gaining strokes across the board, especially off the tee. Ancer should be in contention for the biggest win of his career.
Shane Lowry ($9600, $8000, 36-1) – Shaneo rates out great this week. He’s been posting consistent results this year, so the form is there. He also rates out great where it matters, mainly in Bogey Avoidance, ranking in the Top 2% of the field. Shane also brings a lot of win equity, hence him being 36-1 but being below median price on both FD and DK.
Value Tier
Jhonattan Vegas ($8200, $6800, 150-1) – Vegas stands as a unique value play this week. His results have been consistent this year, but not great. He rates out well for this course however, gaining strokes in almost every category relevant in my model. He also has some good history here, cashing his biggest pay day here 3 years ago. A sneaky result could be in story for Jhonny.
Harold Varner ($8600, $6800, 210-1) – Varner’s a player that just keeps popping up in my model. He clicks a lot of boxes, especially drawing attention from his above average play on Pete Dye designs. Varner exhibits a very well-rounded game, not dropping outside the top 60 in any pertinent stat in my model. As already stated, this is a good place to be, and Varner could turn in a good week.
Keegan Bradley ($8200, $6900, 160-1) – Keegan is another guy that just keeps popping up in my model. The biggest reason I’m turning to him as a value play is because of his play in windy conditions, which is forecasting to be a factor during the week. Bradley rates out in the top 2% in Strokes Gained Approach, Ball Striking, and Tee to Green in windy conditions over his last 24 rounds. If he doesn’t putt himself out of the tournament, he should certainly be around for the weekend.
By Harry Rohlfing
Fantasy National Golf Club: https://www.fantasynational.com/Moosenomics/Search
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